Zinfandel Fun Facts - Christian Miller
Full Glass Research - April 2006
Retail (on and off-premise) sales of Red Zinfandel are roughly estimated at 4.25 million cases in 2005. Retail sales of White Zinfandel are estimated at about 18 million cases. Red Zin ranks well below Cabernet and Merlot in sales, but above Pinot Noir and Syrah.
Nearly all White Zin is sold under $8/bottle retail. (750ml equivalent; in fact much of White Zin is sold in 1.5L bottles, jugs and boxes). However, Red Zin is spread across the price spectrum:
• Approximately 1.8 million cases are sold under $8/bottle
• 1.3 million cases between $8 and $15/bottle
• 1.15 million cases over $15/bottle.
As a result, sales revenues from Red Zin are probably higher than for White Zinfandel.
The Red Zin market used to be more tilted towards the lower-priced wines. As recently as 1998, nearly 2/3 of Red Zin was sold under $8 a bottle. With greater recognition of single-vineyard and old vine bottlings, the emergence of more Zin specialists and the consumer trend towards richly flavored red wines, sales of higher-priced Zins surged. Now we estimate over 60% of Red Zin is sold over $8 a bottle and 29% is sold over $15/bottle.
White Zin’s heyday was the late 1980s and early 1990s, when sales grew enormously. It was an important entry-level wine – market research showed that 750ml White Zin and Chardonnay were the leading purchases by new wine consumers. By the late 1990s White Zin sales flattened and now they appear to be in decline.
The Zinfandel grape market is split into two segments – grapes intended for White Zin and those for Red Zin. White Zin grapes are picked early for less color and sugar and tangier acids. The vast majority is grown at high yields in the Central Valley, with an emphasis on efficiency over flavor intensity. Red Zin is made everywhere, but skews towards the coastal regions, Sierra foothills and better quality locations in the Central Valley. It’s grown at lower yields and harvested later, for intense fruit quality, darker color and richer flavor. Certain vineyards are especially prized for older vines or particular locations that develop unique or distinctive flavor.
As with most California grapes, the central valley produces the greatest quantity of Zin, about 280,000 tons in 2004. Much of this went into White Zinfandel. The coastal regions (including such appellations as Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino, Paso Robles) harvested 41,000 tons in 2004.
The total Zin harvest has declined since its 2000 peak of over 400,000 tons, mainly due to central valley farmers pulling out White Zin vineyards. On the other hand, demand for quality red Zin grapes from areas like Lodi and the Delta region is increasing. Acreage there has remained fairly stable since 2000.
Note that while the central valley produces more than 5 times the tonnage of Zinfandel grapes compared to the coastal and foothill regions, it has less than 3 times the acreage. The difference is due to the lower yields in the coastal and foothill regions.
Among Coastal vineyards, Sonoma and the South Central Coast (particularly Paso Robles) are the leading producers of grapes for Red Zin, at over 11,000 tons apiece in 2004.
Zin acreage in the Coastal vineyards have increased only modestly since 2000, from about 12,300 acres to 13,500 acres. This has been something of a problem for producers of high quality and higher-priced Red Zinfandel, since demand has grown much faster. This is part of the reason the search is on for both the best clones and growing practices for Zin and for high quality vineyards in places like Lodi, which formerly supplied mainly the lower-priced market.
The following chart gives tons, estimated acreage, and average price per ton for Zinfandel in California by region in 2004. Note that the prices for interior Zin reflect a high proportion of White Zin usage.
Data |
Region |
2004 |
Tons |
Central Coast |
15,287 |
|
North Coast |
25,456 |
|
Northern Interior |
158,155 |
|
Southern Interior |
122,662 |
Acres |
Central Coast |
3,934 |
|
North Coast |
9,565 |
|
Northern Interior |
23,584 |
|
Southern Interior |
12,893 |
Price |
Central Coast |
$862 |
|
North Coast |
$1,536 |
|
Northern Interior |
$557 |
|
Southern Interior |
$320 |
|
|
|
The following chart compares tons and acres in 2004 between major varietals.
Data |
GrapeVarietal |
2004 |
Tons |
Cabernet Sauvignon |
359,915 |
|
Chardonnay |
528,167 |
|
Merlot |
291,920 |
|
Pinot Noir |
69,844 |
|
Sauvignon Blanc |
78,811 |
|
Syrah |
101,108 |
|
Zinfandel |
321,560 |
Acres |
Cabernet Sauvignon |
75,332 |
|
Chardonnay |
97,043 |
|
Merlot |
51,634 |
|
Pinot Noir |
25,070 |
|
Sauvignon Blanc |
15,022 |
|
Syrah |
18,358 |
|
Zinfandel |
49,976 |
|
